Huang quits Nvidia: the stock holds up, but rates at 5.10% bite harder

RADAR PRO ELITE™ FINBEAR — November 13, 2026

On Thursday morning Nvidia announced the departure of Jensen Huang, who founded the company 33 years ago. Chief financial officer Colette Kress is now running it on an interim basis. The stock was down about 14% at one point in early trading, then clawed back to close 4.34% lower, while AMD and Broadcom each gained more than 5%. The market absorbed the blow. Rates were another matter: the 10-year yield climbed to 5.10%, the dollar hit a 19-month high and gold slipped below $3,900. Overnight, bitcoin fell below $69,000.

📑 Table of Contents

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📌 Key Indicators Dashboard

Closing levels for Thursday, November 12, 2026. Prices, RSI and moving averages come from StockCharts and Yahoo Finance, with gold and silver taken from the futures series; the VIX, WTI, Brent and EUR/USD are checked against StockCharts charts. Treasury yields are official U.S. Treasury data for November 12, with changes measured against the November 10 reading, since the bond market was closed on the 11th for Veterans Day. Bitcoin and ether are quoted as of 9:40 a.m. CET, with changes measured against the close used by the Pretore. Futures and morning quotes: Yahoo Finance, as of 10:03-10:04 a.m. CET.

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🧭 Compass of the Day

FINBEAR Compass™ · $SPX · Nov 12, 2026

  VERDICT           CONTRADICTED       — recent momentum contradicts the regime
  OPERATING REGIME  Strong bear
  LINEARITY         Non-linear trends
  COHERENCE         full
  RELIABILITY       SUSPENDED
  POSITION          -- below trend     — below the underlying trend
  UNDERLYING TREND  Persistent bull    — solid

The Compass sees the same S&P 500 it saw on Wednesday. Momentum over the last few sessions still contradicts a strong-bear operating regime. Coherence is full, but reliability remains suspended because the medium-term measure isn't solid. The short-term regime runs against an underlying trend that is still rising, persistent and solid. In other words, this is a short-term correction inside an uptrend, with price still below the underlying trend line.

The Nasdaq-100 and the Composite show the same picture. In semiconductors, where reliability is medium, momentum contradicts a strong-bear regime, and price sits far below an underlying trend that is still rising: here too, a short-term correction inside an uptrend. The financial sector goes its own way. Momentum confirms a strong-bull regime, but coherence is nil and reliability suspended, which makes the signal hard to read. Price is back inside its trend band, and the underlying uptrend remains fragile.

For the indexes, the session the Compass measures was little more than a pause; a 0.35% decline doesn't change the medium-term picture. The Pretore and the Compass agree that the rebound is still standing. By design, neither takes rates into account when it reads the stock indexes.

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📐 Yield Curve

U.S. Treasury Curve · Nov 12, 2026

  SHAPE       flat
  MOVEMENT    unchanged
  MACRO       normal

For the economy: The curve is still flat and hasn't changed shape, but only because the whole thing has shifted higher. Two-year and 10-year yields rose by almost the same amount, as the market priced in a Fed that keeps hiking for longer. Money is getting more expensive at every maturity, and the 10-year is back above 5%. For the priciest stocks this is the most awkward kind of move, since it raises the rate used to discount future earnings.

For banks: A curve that stays flat as it rises does nothing for net interest margins, while funding costs climb with short-term rates. On Thursday the banks fell along with the broader market, as the next section shows.

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🏦 Banks: Large vs Regional

XLF · KBWB · KRE — financial sector

• XLF (sector) — at $58.21 (−0.72%), RSI 59.4, above its 50- and 200-day averages ($55.96 and $53.92). It closed below the invalidation level we gave yesterday ($58.615), but today's reading lowers that level to $56.6875. The Pretore's signature therefore stays in active long, with a 2.62% cushion, and price is 0.97% above the Consensus.
• KBWB (large banks) — at $89.64 (−0.57%), RSI 52.2, just below its 50-day average ($89.86) and above its 200-day ($89.08); support sits around $88.74, 1% lower, with resistance around $90.46.
• KRE (regionals) — at $72.52 (−0.59%), RSI 51.9, above its 50- and 200-day averages ($71.76 and $71.20). Price is right at resistance, and the nearest support is around $71.20, 1.82% lower.

On Thursday large and regional banks fell by about the same amount. Wednesday's split, with the big banks up and the regionals down, gave way to a decline across the board. With rates rising along the whole curve, the sector has lost momentum, but it remains above its long-term averages.

KBWB and KRE under watch — a reading, not a signal.

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🎯 Executive Summary

🎬 The day in one line

Nvidia announced Jensen Huang’s resignation on Thursday, and the stock went from a loss of about 14% in early trading to a 4.34% decline at the close. AMD and Broadcom gained more than 5% and the S&P 500 held its loss to 0.35%, while the 10-year yield rose to 5.10% and the dollar hit a 19-month high.

🏢 Nvidia turns the page

• The resignation. 🆕 Huang gives up every role, including his board seat. Colette Kress runs the company on an interim basis while remaining CFO, and Harvey Jones becomes the first board chair in Nvidia’s history.
• The reaction. Nvidia won back about two-thirds of its early losses. AMD +5.86%, Broadcom +5.54%, CoreWeave −6.9%.
• The fallout. Reuters reported that Huang had had a relationship with another Nvidia employee, making three that have come to light. Huang has agreed to testify before Congress ahead of Thanksgiving. Nvidia’s quarterly results are still scheduled for Tuesday, November 17.

🏛️ Rates, the dollar and metals

The 10-year yield rose to 5.10% and the two-year to 4.86%, and the dollar hit its highest level since April 2025. Behind the move is the expectation that the Fed will hike in bigger steps: the market now puts the odds of a half-point increase in December at about 14.5%. Gold fell 2.88% and silver 3.68%, and overnight bitcoin dropped below $69,000.

⏳ The bottom line

As we wrote in the November 12 RADAR, the chip rebound had to hold up even with Nvidia’s leadership still unsettled. We now know who is in charge, and the rebound held: the thesis is confirmed. Its invalidation condition was not met. The S&P 500 did close below 7,606.88, but the Nasdaq Composite stayed above 24,997.67, and the condition required both. The weak spot has moved from Nvidia to rates.

Pretore vs thesis. Signature of the day on $SPX: active long — in line with today’s thesis of a market that holds up after Huang’s exit; the recalculated invalidation level is 7,319.48, 3.59% lower. The Nasdaq-100, Composite, Dow and semiconductor signatures, all in active long, agree as well. The thesis is invalidated if, by Friday, November 20, the Composite closes below 24,997.67 and, in the same session, the Dow closes below 51,579.35.

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📊 News in Detail

🌐1. Huang resigns from Nvidia, and Colette Kress takes over on an interim basis

What happened

✅ On Thursday morning Nvidia’s board announced that Jensen Huang had resigned as chief executive and as a director. The board had accepted his resignation on Wednesday, November 11, effective immediately (Form 8-K filed with the SEC). ✅ Colette Kress, CFO since September 2013, takes charge on an interim basis and will stay on as CFO until a successor is named. Harvey C. Jones becomes the first board chair in the company’s history (company release). ✅ The board will consider both internal and external candidates for the top job. The release carries no statement from Huang (company release).

✅ The stock opened at $151.01 and touched $148.80, its lowest in 52 weeks. During the session Nvidia’s market value dropped below $4 trillion for the first time since July 2025. By the close the stock was at $166.19 (−4.34%) and the company was worth more than $4 trillion again (KuCoin; Motley Fool). 🔸 Bernstein halved its price target from $400 to $200, and Citigroup cut its target from $285 to $225 (SBS; TokenPost).

✅ On Thursday Reuters, citing two sources, reported that Huang had had a relationship with another Nvidia employee, who was not identified; it is the third to come to light (Reuters, via Newsweek). ✅ Brian Mast, who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee, says Huang has agreed to testify before Congress ahead of Thanksgiving. The committee had threatened to compel him to appear (Politis; Newsweek). 🔸 The New York Times, citing two people familiar with the matter, reported that President Trump had urged Huang on November 10 not to step down (New York Times, via Newser).

✅ Super Micro lost 11.30% after Bloomberg reported that federal prosecutors in Manhattan are looking into whether companies linked to Alice Huang smuggled Super Micro servers (Bloomberg, via Yahoo Finance).

✅ Quarterly results are still set for Tuesday, November 17. They will be the first that Kress presents as interim chief executive (company release). ✅ Huang owns about 3.6% of the company (Fortune).

As we wrote in the November 12 RADAR, the board was ready to remove Huang, and the stock was down more than 9% in after-hours trading. Thursday brought the confirmation. The board’s decision became public and the market took it in stride: the real damage came at the open, not at the close.

What sources say

“committed to building on the extraordinary foundation Jensen created over the last 33 years” — Colette Kress, interim CEO (Nvidia release)

“he let his shareholders down” — Jim Cramer, CNBC (CNN)

FINBEAR Take: the price of a founder, paid in an hour

In a single morning the market did the math it had been putting off for a week. At $151 the stock priced in an Nvidia with nobody at the helm. At $166 it prices in an Nvidia run by the person who has known its books better than anyone else for the past 13 years. That $15 a share is what the market was willing to pay for an end to the uncertainty, not a verdict on Huang’s departure.

Now the story moves on to three milestones. On Tuesday the 17th come the results, delivered by a CFO who will also be speaking as chief executive. Ahead of Thanksgiving comes the hearing before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, which turns a private affair into a public matter. Then the board picks a successor, and that choice will reveal whether it wants an engineer, a manager or someone who can vouch for the company in Washington.

Cui prodest? Kress and the new board chair, who can present themselves to shareholders as guarantors of continuity before the results. The losers are those who bought in recent days hoping Huang would stay, and anyone who owned Nvidia as a bet on its founder rather than on its chips.

Impact: 🔴🔴🔴 (3/5) — Nvidia without its founder, four days before results · The other side: rival chipmakers favored

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🌐2. The market sells Nvidia and buys its rivals: AMD and Broadcom gain more than 5%

What happened

✅ The S&P 500 closed on Thursday at 7,592.40 (−0.35%), after being down almost 1% at the open. The Composite fell 0.39% and the Dow 0.36% (AP, via Durango Herald; Yahoo Finance), and the Russell 2000 ETF lost 1.64% (StockCharts, November 12 closes). ✅ AMD rose 5.86% and Broadcom 5.54%. CoreWeave, which rents out computing capacity built on Nvidia chips, lost 6.9%, and Micron 1.6% (StockTitan; KuCoin). ✅ AP notes that the gains in AMD and Broadcom nearly offset the drop in Nvidia, which weighed on the S&P 500 more than any other stock (AP, via Durango Herald).

✅ Alphabet gained 1.79% and Microsoft 0.36%, while Taiwan Semiconductor lost 1.9% (KuCoin).

✅ European stocks are lower this morning, as Huang’s exit raises doubts about the AI cycle (Euronews). At 10:03 a.m. CET, Nasdaq futures were down 0.45%.

As we wrote in the November 12 RADAR, the chip rebound had to prove it didn’t hinge on a single stock. Thursday supplied the proof: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) slipped 0.54%, while Nvidia lost 4.34%.

What sources say

“Those two gains came close to offsetting the drop for Nvidia, which was the single heaviest weight on the S&P 500.” — Associated Press

FINBEAR Take: AI has more than one master

On Thursday the market drew a line between the company and the industry. It sold Nvidia, but it didn’t sell AI chips. The money went to AMD and Broadcom, which give customers an alternative and have stable leadership. The semiconductor index lost just 0.54%, or an eighth of Nvidia’s decline.

The bill fell instead on the companies that live in Nvidia’s orbit. CoreWeave lost 6.9%. Super Micro, caught up in the Alice Huang affair, lost 11.30%. That’s the difference between competing with Nvidia and depending on it. Rivals can win customers; those who depend on Nvidia inherit the uncertainty.

Cui prodest? Nvidia’s direct rivals in data-center chips, which can offer customers continuity during their competitor’s most uncertain week. The losers are the companies that rely on Nvidia for their chips and for the financing of their growth.

Impact: 🟢🟢 (2/5) — The sector absorbs Huang’s exit · The other side: companies tied to Nvidia penalized

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🏛️3. Rates and the dollar: the 10-year yield reaches 5.10%, the dollar a 19-month high

What happened

✅ According to Treasury data, the 10-year yield rose to 5.10% and the two-year to 4.86% when the bond market reopened after Veterans Day (U.S. Treasury, November 12 data; AP, via Durango Herald). ✅ The 10-year is back above 5% (TipRanks). ✅ Reuters says the two-year yield has climbed 34 basis points in two sessions, its steepest two-day rise in three and a half years (Reuters, via bdnews24).

✅ The dollar climbed to its strongest in about 19 months, with the dollar index closing at 103.17, its highest level since April 2025 (Reuters, via Euronext). ✅ The market puts the odds of a December rate hike at about 85% (Reuters, via Euronext). ✅ The probability of a half-point hike has risen to 14.5%, from 0% the week before (CME FedWatch, via Reuters and bdnews24). ✅ The fed funds rate sits in a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%. The Fed meets next on December 8 and 9.

✅ On November 10, Fed Governor Christopher Waller opened the door to a half-point hike if core inflation stayed around 0.3% a month (Waller speech, Fed; CNBC, via Traders Agency; American Banker). ✅ Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack prefers smaller, gradual increases (Reuters, via Kitco; FXStreet). ✅ Gold fell to $3,885.30 an ounce (−2.88%) and silver to $49.97 (−3.68%). 🔸 For gold that is the lowest level in more than a year (Seeking Alpha).

As we wrote in the November 12 RADAR, the Fed was split between a quarter-point and a half-point hike. On Thursday the Treasury market, shut the day before, put a price on that debate, and the price was higher yields.

What sources say

“The dollar has strengthened almost exclusively based on Fed expectations” — Eugene Epstein, Moneycorp (Reuters)

“Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take.” — Christopher Waller, Fed, November 10 (American Banker)

FINBEAR Take: the real scandal of the day is 5.10%

The front pages were all about Nvidia, but the news that weighs most on portfolios came from the bond market. A 10-year yield of 5.10% raises the rate at which future earnings are discounted. That hits hardest the stocks whose value depends on profits still to come. The Russell 2000 ETF, home to smaller and more indebted companies, lost 1.64%, almost five times the S&P 500’s decline.

The dollar and gold tell the same story from opposite ends. The dollar rises because it pays more; gold falls because it pays nothing. As yields climb, holding a metal that earns no interest costs more and more. In a single session the market sold the old safe haven and bought the currency that is taking its place.

Cui prodest? The dollar, and holders of very short-dated bills, which pay more with every hike the market expects. The losers are small caps, holders of gold and silver, and anyone sitting on long-dated bonds bought at lower yields.

Impact: 🔴🔴🔴 (3/5) — The 10-year above 5% and a tougher Fed · The other side: dollar favored

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🌐4. Bitcoin falls below $69,000, its lowest since August

What happened

✅ Bitcoin fell below $69,000 for the first time since August (Stocktwits; FinanceFeeds). At 9:40 a.m. CET it was trading at $68,758.59, 3.62% below the Thursday close used by the Pretore. ✅ The Kobeissi Letter estimates that crypto markets lost about $150 billion in value in 48 hours (Stocktwits). ✅ Leveraged positions worth about $1.41 billion were liquidated in 24 hours, 89% of them bets on higher prices (FinanceFeeds).

✅ U.S. bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $1.44 billion over five straight sessions, from November 5 to 11, nearly three-quarters of it from BlackRock’s fund (Farside Investors, via NewsBTC; KuCoin). 🔸 SoSoValue data compiled by CoinDesk put net outflows for the year to date at $1.56 billion (CryptoNews). 🔸 MSCI will drop Strategy from its global indexes after the November 30 rebalancing (Stocktwits). Shares of Strategy and Coinbase fell along with crypto (Stocktwits).

✅ Ether is down 4.18% this morning at $1,932.61. ✅ The Pretore’s signatures on bitcoin and ether, which flipped to active long on Wednesday, are back in active short.

As we wrote in the November 12 RADAR, bitcoin’s signature had just flipped to active long, with its invalidation level a step away from the price. A single session was enough to undo it: the level broke and the signature returned to active short.

What sources say

No direct statements attributable to primary sources are available for this story.

FINBEAR Take: bitcoin is paying for rates, not for Nvidia

The headlines blame Huang’s exit for bitcoin’s slide, but the calendar tells a different story. The ETF outflows have been running for five sessions, since before the Nvidia affair turned into a leadership crisis, and the selling has picked up in step with Treasury yields and the dollar. When rates rise, bitcoin behaves like any asset that pays no interest. Exactly like gold, in fact.

Leverage did the rest. Almost 90% of the value liquidated came from bets on higher prices, so traders who were long with borrowed money had to sell. Debt has amplified this decline; a change of heart about bitcoin comes second.

Cui prodest? Those who had hedged or sold short, and those waiting for lower prices to buy with their own cash. The losers are investors who bought with leverage, and listed companies that hold bitcoin on their balance sheets.

Impact: 🔴🔴 (2/5) — ETF outflows and leveraged positions wiped out · The other side: dollar favored

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🌐5. Oil: Brent jumps 3.3% but is still headed for a weekly loss

What happened

✅ Brent closed on Thursday at $95.82 a barrel (+3.30%) and WTI at $88.74 (+2.55%), according to StockCharts data. ✅ AP says crude rose after Trump said a deal with Iran isn’t needed (AP, via Durango Herald). ✅ The Houthis remain in the background. They have claimed responsibility for attacks on a pumping station on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, a facility in Yanbu and an Aramco building in Riyadh (Reuters, via Investing.com).

✅ In the early hours of this morning prices edged lower, and both benchmarks are on course for a second straight weekly loss. Brent and WTI are down between 2.4% and 2.9% for the week, after plunging 16% and 13%, respectively, the week before (Reuters, via Investing.com; Business Recorder). ✅ The U.S. blockade on Iran, which Trump intends to keep in place, eases fears that the war with Iran could resume (Reuters, via Investing.com). ✅ U.S. crude inventories rose by 4.7 million barrels, against expectations of a 1.1 million-barrel draw (Reuters, via Investing.com).

At 10:04 a.m. CET, WTI was at $89.04 (+0.34%) and Brent at $96.40 (+0.61%).

As we wrote in the November 12 RADAR, a close above the invalidation level would mean rechecking WTI’s signature in the Pretore’s next reading. Crude did close above it, and the check is in: the Pretore now has WTI in active long, alongside Brent.

What sources say

“I think the oil market is priced to perfection at this point” — Chris Brankin, MiTrade (Reuters)

“Geopolitical risks remain elevated, and any fresh disruption to oil supplies could quickly reignite upward pressure on prices” — Sugandha Sachdeva, SS WealthStreet (Reuters)

FINBEAR Take: a barrel up on the day, down on the week

Oil runs on two clocks. The daily clock follows Trump’s words, and on Thursday those words pushed Brent up 3.3%, with the Houthi attacks as a backdrop. The weekly clock follows the Iran blockade, which makes a war less likely, and the build in U.S. inventories; it points to a second weekly decline. The result is a price that swings a lot and goes nowhere.

What matters for markets is something else. A barrel that climbs just as the 10-year yield breaks above 5% revives inflation fears, and that’s where the oil story meets the Fed story. Every extra dollar on a barrel of crude makes it harder for the Fed to stop at a quarter-point hike.

Cui prodest? Gulf producers selling at close to $96 a barrel, and U.S. oil companies. The losers are airlines and consumers, along with anyone who bet on oil staying below $90.

Impact: 🔴🔴 (2/5) — Crude higher, inflation fears return · The other side: crude producers favored

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🌐6. Anthropic’s IPO is six times oversubscribed, with trading expected on November 19

What happened

✅ Anthropic’s offering has drawn orders for about six times the shares available, Bloomberg reports (Bloomberg, via Investing.com). ✅ Anthropic and some existing shareholders are selling a total of 825 million shares at $70 to $78 apiece, for gross proceeds of up to $64.4 billion and a fully diluted valuation of up to $1.4 trillion. About 23.6 million of those 825 million shares come from the selling shareholders (prospectus filed with the SEC; Bloomberg, via Investing.com). ✅ The banks running the deal have told investors that existing shareholders will get priority (Bloomberg, via Investing.com).

✅ Trading on the Nasdaq, under the ticker ANT, is expected to begin on the 19th (Bloomberg, via Investing.com), ✅ with the final price due around the 18th (prospectus filed with the SEC). ✅ Retail investors could receive up to 20% of the shares, depending on actual demand (prospectus filed with the SEC).

✅ Jeffrey Gundlach, the DoubleLine bond manager, says he wouldn’t touch Anthropic’s debt (Yahoo Finance). 🔸 Bill Ackman has no plans to add Anthropic to his portfolio (AOL). 🔸 Yahoo Finance has named Anthropic its company of the year (Yahoo Finance).

We wrote about Anthropic in the October 27 RADAR, when the company filed its IPO prospectus. On Thursday, demand for Anthropic’s shares ran at about six times the supply. It was the very day Nvidia lost its founder.

What sources say

“The idea of buying Anthropic debt makes me want to break out in hives.” — Jeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine (Yahoo Finance)

FINBEAR Take: AI fever moves house

On the same day, the market sold Nvidia and lined up for Anthropic. That’s not a contradiction. It shows that the appetite for AI is still there; it has simply moved. While Nvidia is being sold, the IPO offers investors another way into the sector.

Gundlach’s line tells you the rest. One of America’s best-known bond managers wants nothing to do with Anthropic’s debt, so the queue is made up of people buying the shares, not of people lending it money. An offering six times oversubscribed, with a 10-year yield at 5.10%, will test how much the market is prepared to pay for tomorrow’s earnings.

Cui prodest? Anthropic and its current shareholders, who can set the price at the top of the range and get first call on the allocation. The losers are retail investors who will get few shares or none, and who will have to decide whether to buy them on the open market on day one.

Impact: 🟢🟢 (2/5) — Strong demand for Anthropic’s IPO

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📰 In Brief

• Last night's earnings. Cisco reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $18.5 billion and adjusted earnings of $1.40 a share, beating expectations, and raised its full-year outlook (company release; Seeking Alpha). The stock had closed Thursday at $102.01 (+1.24%) and is down 2.43% in premarket trading this morning (Yahoo Finance; Investing.com; Yahoo Finance, 10:04 a.m. CET). Applied Materials posted record revenue of $10.41 billion, up 53%, and forecast $11.1 billion for the first quarter (company release). 🔸 Cerebras is up about 19% ahead of the open (Benzinga).
• Microsoft. 🔸 An outage hit Outlook, Teams and Copilot around the world (The Week), and the stock is down 2.72% in premarket trading this morning. 🔸 Bill Ackman says Microsoft is in a very, very strong position (Yahoo Finance).
• Housing. Existing-home sales fell 5.5% in October from September, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.75 million units, the lowest since August 2010 (NAR, via Inman).
• SpaceX and Tesla. 🔸 Talks on what would be a record merger are continuing. According to Bloomberg, a deal could be announced as early as December, or slip to early 2027 (Bloomberg, via Reuters and The Star).

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📊 Aggregated Sentiment Table

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🎭 Fear and Loathing on Wall Street™

⚪ Neutral — Index: 6

Registry comparison: the last recorded reading is +12 (Neutral), from November 12, based on the close on Wednesday, November 11. There has been one session since. On Thursday the S&P 500 fell 0.35% and the VIX rose from 17.49 to 18.70, while the 10-year yield climbed to 5.10%.

Reading. On Thursday the market had its scare and handled it. Nvidia was down about 14% in early trading and won back about two-thirds of that, while its rivals collected the money heading for the exit. The real jitters were elsewhere. A 10-year yield above 5%, the dollar at a 19-month high, gold and bitcoin sliding: the fear is no longer about who runs Nvidia but about what money will cost. This is a market that got past one piece of bad news and found a worse one in rates.

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🔗 Cross-Cutting Synthesis

Today’s six stories describe a market that separated the man from the industry, then found a bigger problem in rates. Nvidia loses its founder and closes 4.34% lower, but its rivals collect the money heading for the exit, and the semiconductor index loses just 0.54%. The same day, demand for Anthropic‘s shares runs at six times the supply. Meanwhile the 10-year yield tops 5% and the dollar climbs to a 19-month high; bitcoin drops below $69,000 and oil rebounds on the wrong day.

Price action shows which story really counts. On news of Huang’s exit, the market sold at the open and had bought back in by the close. On rates it had no second thoughts. The Russell 2000 ETF lost 1.64%, gold and silver fell almost 3% and 4% respectively, and bitcoin slipped below $69,000. The Pretore records the same shift: the index signatures stay in active long, while those on the dollar, Treasuries and metals have lined up behind a tougher Fed.

Only one of the two conditions for invalidating the November 12 thesis was met, so the thesis stands: the S&P 500 closed below 7,606.88, but the Composite stayed above 24,997.67. The weak spot has moved from Nvidia’s boardroom to the price of money, and today’s producer prices could move it again.

Cui prodest? Nvidia’s rivals in chips, the dollar, and holders of very short-dated bills. The losers are small caps, holders of gold, silver and bitcoin, and anyone who had tied a portfolio to Nvidia’s founder.

📌 Thesis invalidation — This RADAR’s dominant thesis is: the market absorbed Huang’s exit by moving money into Nvidia’s rivals; the rebound is holding, but now it has to withstand a 10-year yield above 5%.

• Holds because:
• on Thursday the S&P 500 held its loss to 0.35% after being down almost 1% at the open, AMD and Broadcom gained more than 5%, and the semiconductor index lost just 0.54%;
• the Pretore’s index signatures all stay in active long, and the Compass still sees momentum contradicting the short-term bear regime;
• the counterweight: the 10-year yield rose to 5.10% and the Russell 2000 ETF lost 1.64%, while the Composite slipped below the Consensus.
• Invalidated if: the Nasdaq Composite closes below 24,997.67, the level below which its active long signature lapses, and in the same session the Dow closes below 51,579.35, the level below which its own signature lapses.
• By: the close on Friday, November 20, after Nvidia’s results on the 17th and Anthropic’s debut on the 19th.
• In that case: FINBEAR’s read would shift from a rebound that holds to a technical bounce within a correction. Rates would replace Nvidia as the driver of the selling, and the market would go back to dumping its priciest stocks.

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🚨 Strategic Alerts

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📜 Disclaimer & Maxim