Blockade Week — FINBEAR

RADAR WEEK AHEAD™ FINBEAR — April 14, 2026

“No plan survives first contact with the enemy. But no commander worth his salt goes into battle without one.”

Published	Week	Number	Theme
2026-04-14	of April 13–17, 2026	WA-008	Blockade Week

📑 Table of Contents

🧭 Before You Open the Terminal
⚔️ Debrief
🗺️ Executive Map
🔬 Regime Check
📊 Key Technical Levels
📅 Macro Calendar
💰 Earnings
📈 Positioning & Flows
🔗 Critical Correlations
🎯 FINBEAR Operational Bias
🧨 Risk Map
📰 In Brief
🎭 Fear & Loathing on Wall Street
📜 Disclaimer & Maxim

🧭 Before You Open the Terminal

🏛️ Geopolitics → US naval blockade on Hormuz

Iran talks collapsed Saturday. Trump announced the naval blockade. CENTCOM confirms: the blockade of all Iranian ports goes live at 10:00 ET today. Iran is calling it “deadly traps.” We went from “peace in sight” to “declared piracy” in 48 hours.

🔋 Energy → Violent oil gap-up

$WTIC from $96.57 (Friday close) to $103.25 pre-market (+6.92%). Bloomberg/Onyx: $150 scenario if the blockade extends. Goldman: Brent above $100 for all of 2026 if Hormuz stays shut another month. The fuel of inflation just re-ignited.

📈 Macro → March PPI tomorrow (Tuesday April 14, 08:30 ET) — the data point of the week

Consensus: +1.2% MoM / +4.6% YoY ✅. After CPI printed +0.9%/+3.3% (the sharpest monthly jump since 2022), PPI completes the inflation picture. If it confirms → zero Fed cuts in 2026. If core surprises to the downside → bond relief.

🏢 Earnings → The biggest bank cluster of the season

$GS today pre-market (kickoff), then $JPM $WFC $BLK $C Tuesday, $BAC $MS Wednesday. Thursday is the main event: $TSM pre-market at 02:00 ET (AI Supercycle barometer, +38% YoY revenue guidance) and $NFLX after close.

⏳ Structure → A full week, five sessions back-to-back

No breathing room: the blockade, PPI, bank earnings, TSMC, and Netflix stack on top of each other, one catalyst per session. Every day carries its own fuse.

Verdict (🔴):

High priority An event-driven week with a live naval blockade, oil gapping up, a hot PPI incoming, and the biggest bank earnings cluster of the year. This is not the week to look away.

If any single week can set the tone for Q2, it’s this one. Those who skip the briefing don’t get to complain about the gap.

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⚔️ Debrief

Previous Plan

bearish bias as long as $SPX traded below the SMA200 at 6,635, with price invalidation at a close above 6,635. Macro trigger: FOMC Minutes and Q4 GDP. Event trigger: Iran negotiation trajectory.

Triggers & Results

Trigger	Threshold	Result
Price (invalidation)	SPX > 6,635	🔴 FIRED — SPX closed at 6,816.89 (+3.56% for the week)
Macro (FOMC Minutes)	Hawkish tone → bias confirmed	⚪ Not decisive — hold confirmed, no surprise
Event (Iran)	De-escalation → invalidates bearish bias	⚠️ OSCILLATING — ceasefire April 8 (+6 F&L), then collapse April 9 (-15 F&L), then blockade April 12

Analysis

The plan broke. SPX forced a bullish SMA200 breach, driven by the post-ceasefire euphoria of April 8 and a semiconductor rally ($SOX +13.5% on the week). Those who had a clear invalidation level saw the terrain had shifted. Those who stayed anchored to the bearish bias watched the market walk away from them.

Lesson

in an event-driven regime, geopolitical triggers overwrite the technicals. The SMA200 didn’t yield because of endogenous market strength — it yielded because a ceasefire got priced in four hours flat.

What We Carry Forward

last week’s rally is built on foundations that have already crumbled. The ceasefire is gone. Hormuz is closed again — and now it’s worse: not an Iranian blockade, but an active American one. Every gain since April 7 is suspended over a void.

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🗺️ Executive Map

The market enters this week carrying a structural dissociation. Equity is celebrating last week’s +3.56% rally — built on a ceasefire that no longer exists. $SPX at 6,816 sits above both key moving averages (SMA50 at 6,762, SMA200 at 6,663), the RSI reads 60 (neither overbought nor oversold), and last week produced the most violent bounce since the March lows. But pre-market on Monday tells a different story: futures at -0.59%, VIX at 21.19 (+10.2%), WTI gapping up +6.92%. The field is controlled by geopolitics, not technicals. Buyers have the momentum from last week’s rally; sellers have the Hormuz naval blockade, a hot PPI incoming, and five consecutive sessions loaded with back-to-back catalysts. Week type: event-driven, with violent reversal risk. The level separating who controls the field is the SMA50 at 6,762 — above it, last week’s rally holds; below it, the market admits the party was over before it started.

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🔬 Regime Check

Indicator	Status	Signal
Vol Regime	Transition — from compression to expansion Transition — from compression to expansion	VIX Friday 19.23 (below SMA50 at 22.42), pre-market Monday 21.19 (+10.2%). The post-ceasefire compression lasted exactly two sessions. The Hormuz blockade reopens the vol expansion cycle. ✅
Liquidity	Event concentration Event concentration	Full five-session week (Good Friday was April 3). Two macro releases delayed (Retail Sales, Housing Starts). Volume concentrated on bank earnings Mon–Wed, then TSMC and Netflix Thursday. ✅
Breadth	Quality divergence Quality divergence	SOX +13.5% on the week vs. INDU -0.56% Friday. The rally belongs to chips and Nasdaq — the rest of the market is watching. The Dow is below its SMA50. ✅
Dollar Pressure	Weak Weak	$USD at 98.65, RSI 47.3 — below SMA50 and down -1.38% on the week. EUR/USD at 1.17. Dollar weakness is consistent with geopolitical uncertainty and capital outflows. ✅

Judgment

SMA200 at 18.16 — failed to hold as support on Friday (close at 19.23, above SMA200)

Scenario:

VIX is climbing back toward its SMA50. A sustained close above it signals active hedging regime and an end to the post-ceasefire compression

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📅 Macro Calendar

Week: Trading week: Monday, April 13 — Friday, April 17 (5 sessions — no closures)

Economic Events

Day	Time	Event	Impact	Sensitivity
Mon Apr 13	10:00	Hormuz Blockade activated (CENTCOM)	🔴	Not a macro data release, but it trades like one. Every headline from the Strait moves VIX and oil in real time. $GS earnings pre-market (kickoff)
Tue Apr 14	08:30	March PPI	🔴	Consensus +1.2% MoM / +4.6% YoY ✅. After CPI headline at +3.3%, PPI completes the inflation picture. Confirm or beat → 2026 rate cut probability evaporates. The market is more vulnerable to an upside surprise because it just priced the contained core CPI (+0.2%) as good news
Tue Apr 14	08:30	Core PPI March	🔴	Consensus n/a. The real number to watch. If core stays contained like core CPI → the market can digest the hot headline
Tue Apr 14	08:30	Empire State Manufacturing (April)	🟠	Previous: -0.2 📊. First regional manufacturing reading for April. A collapse here → first signal of demand destruction from the oil shock
Tue Apr 14	—	~~Retail Sales (March)~~	—	POSTPONED to April 21 (Census Bureau) ⚠️
Wed Apr 15	—	No major macro releases	⚪	Digestion day for $BAC $MS $JNJ earnings
Thu Apr 16	08:30	Initial Claims	🟠	First weekly labor market read. A rise above 230K → labor stress signal 📊
Thu Apr 16	08:30	Philadelphia Fed (April)	🟠	Previous: 18.1 📊. Second regional indicator of the week
Thu Apr 16	09:15	Industrial Production (March)	🟠	Real output indicator. A drop → first concrete sign of manufacturing slowdown 📊
Fri Apr 17	08:30	Housing Starts / Building Permits	—	POSTPONED to April 29 (Census Bureau) ✅. No major macro. Post-Netflix digestion. Pre-weekend positioning with blockade still live

Macro Context

Data Point	Value	Source
Fed Funds Rate	3.50%–3.75% (on hold since Jan 28)	FOMC Statement, March 18, 2026
CPI March headline	+0.9% MoM / +3.3% YoY	BLS
Core CPI March	+0.2% MoM / +2.6% YoY	BLS
PCE February headline	+2.8% YoY	BEA
PCE February core	+3.0% YoY	BEA
PPI February (prior)	+0.7% MoM / +3.2% YoY	BLS
FOMC SEP: core PCE 2026	2.7% (revised from 2.5%)	FOMC Projections, March 18
FedWatch: April hold	94.8–97.9%	CME FedWatch
FedWatch: 2026 cuts	1 cut of 25bp (timing uncertain)	CME FedWatch + dot plot

Week Map

Day	Role	What Matters
Mon Apr 13	THE DAY	$GS earnings pre-market (kickoff) + Hormuz Blockade 10:00 ET. Two catalysts before noon
Tue Apr 14	PPI + Banks	March PPI 08:30 + $JPM $WFC $BLK $C pre-market — inflation and bank balance sheets in the same morning
Wed Apr 15	Completion	$BAC $MS $JNJ — closing out the bank picture + healthcare
Thu Apr 16	THE SECOND DAY	$TSM pre-market (AI Supercycle), $NFLX after close, Philly Fed, Initial Claims, Industrial Production
Fri Apr 17	Digestion	Post-Netflix, no major macro. Pre-weekend positioning with blockade live

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💰 Earnings

Calendar

Day	Timing	Company	Ticker	Why It Matters
Mon Apr 13	Pre-market	Goldman Sachs	$GS	Earnings season kickoff. Did the trading desk prosper from Iran volatility? Is the IB pipeline frozen or alive? EPS consensus $16.41 ✅
Tue Apr 14	Pre-market	JPMorgan Chase	$JPM	The banking bellwether. NII guidance, loan loss provisions on the Iran/oil shock, consumer credit health ✅
Tue Apr 14	Pre-market	Wells Fargo	$WFC	Mortgage exposure, NII, consumer lending — the quintessential retail bank ✅
Tue Apr 14	Pre-market	BlackRock	$BLK	World’s largest asset manager. AUM, ETF flows, volatility impact on fee income. EPS consensus $12.01, revenue $6.62B ✅
Tue Apr 14	Pre-market	Citigroup	$C	International exposure, trading revenue, turnaround strategy. EPS consensus $2.63, revenue $23.6B ✅
Wed Apr 15	Pre-market	Bank of America	$BAC	Consumer banking, NII, credit quality. EPS consensus $1.01 ✅
Wed Apr 15	Pre-market	Morgan Stanley	$MS	Wealth management, trading, IB pipeline. EPS consensus $3.01–$3.31, revenue $19.7B ✅
Wed Apr 15	Pre-market	Johnson & Johnson	$JNJ	Pharma/MedTech. CMS +2.5% reimbursement rate is a tailwind, but tariff and input-cost guidance is the question ✅
Thu Apr 16	Pre-market	TSMC	$TSM	The week’s defining data point for tech. Revenue guidance +38% YoY ($34.6–35.8B). Confirmed → $SOX (+13.5% last week) has foundations. Disappointed → it was all hot air ✅
Thu Apr 16	Pre-market	UnitedHealth	$UNH	Healthcare bellwether. Medical cost trends + CMS rates + forward guidance ✅
Thu Apr 16	Pre-market	PepsiCo	$PEP	Consumer spending, pricing power, input cost pressures from the oil shock ✅
Thu Apr 16	After close	Netflix	$NFLX	The week’s only FAANG print. Operating margin target 31.5%, EPS +15% YoY expected. EPS consensus $0.76, revenue $12.17B ✅

Thematic Clusters

Cluster 1 — Banks (Mon–Wed)

The highest concentration of bank earnings of the season. Focus on: (a) loan loss provisions — how much are banks reserving for the Iran/oil shock? (b) NII guidance — rates steady at 3.50–3.75% support margins; (c) IB pipeline — has M&A stalled with the war on? (d) trading revenue — Iran volatility has been a goldmine for the desks.

→ FINBEAR Context: In the February 25 RADAR, Dimon warned “I see a couple people doing some dumb things to create NII.” Bank earnings this week will reveal whether those dumb things have come due — or whether volatility-driven trading revenue has papered over credit quality concerns.

Cluster 2 — TSMC (Thu)

The AI Supercycle thermometer. Revenue guidance +38% YoY. Confirmed → the entire semiconductor complex ($SOX +13.5% last week) has real foundations. Disappointed → the chip rally was speculative.

→ FINBEAR Context: In the March 10 RADAR we tracked TSMC’s February revenue (+22.2% YoY) as confirmation that “AI demand is not a cycle — it’s a regime.” Thursday’s Q1 report tests that thesis against a backdrop of an oil shock and active geopolitical disruption.

Cluster 3 — Netflix (Thu after close)

The week’s closing act. Operating margin at 31.5% is the promise — the market wants proof. A miss here ferments over the weekend with the blockade still live: Friday’s session will be tense.

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📈 Positioning & Flows

VIX (vol proxy)

Friday close 19.23 ✅, Monday pre-market 21.19 (+10.2%) 📊. VIX is running a yo-yo regime: compress on hope → expand on disappointment. The SMA50 at 22.42 is the level to watch — if it reclaims it, desks start covering

Crypto Fear & Greed

16 — Extreme Fear ✅ (46 consecutive days below 20 — the longest streak since the Terra/LUNA collapse in 2022). $BTCUSD at $71K, above SMA50, but far below SMA200 ($87,682). The crypto market never believed in the ceasefire

Fed priced for inaction

94.8–97.9% probability of an April hold ✅. Just one 25bp cut expected in all of 2026, timing uncertain. Today’s PPI is the only catalyst capable of moving those probabilities

Dramatic oil gap

$WTIC closed Friday at $96.57 ✅, pre-market Monday at $103.25 (+6.92%) 📊. The gap reflects the pivot from “hoped-for ceasefire” to “declared blockade.” WTI/Brent pre-market spread is below $2 — a sign of uniform stress across the barrel

Put/Call Ratio ($CPC)

0.82 (Friday, April 10) ✅ — below the EMA20 (0.964), MA50 (0.943), and MA200 (0.881). A low reading means less hedging than normal: the market walked into Monday long and underprotected. The blockade finds defensive positioning scarce — risk of a rush to puts at the open

Gamma Exposure

Positive Gamma following the post-squeeze on April 1 (when market makers had to buy $7.5B in futures to cover short gamma) 📊. In a Positive Gamma regime, dealers sell rallies and buy dips — a stabilizing effect. But an exogenous event like the naval blockade can break the regime fast (source: FinancialContent/Tickmill)

CTA Positioning

Outright short US equities (Goldman Sachs, flagged late March 2026) 📊. Historically associated with more supportive near-term price action — CTAs short need to cover if the market bounces. But with the blockade in place, the bearish trend reinforces and the short can extend

ETF flows

n/a — data not available

Vulnerability summary: The market is positioned long (last week’s +3.56% rally) with a Put/Call at 0.82 — minimal cover. The blockade finds the book exposed. CTAs are already short and can add pressure. The only buffer is dealer Positive Gamma. Risk: simultaneous repricing of equity and commodity options at the open.

Vulnerabilities

The market is positioned long (last week’s +3.56% rally) with a Put/Call at 0.82 — minimal cover. The blockade finds the book exposed. CTAs are already short and can add pressure. The only buffer is dealer Positive Gamma. Risk: simultaneous repricing of equity and commodity options at the open.

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🔗 Critical Correlations

Pair	Status	Implication
BTC vs Nasdaq	Divergent	Nasdaq +4.68% on the week, BTC +2.69%. Nasdaq celebrates TSMC and AI; BTC stays in Extreme Fear for 46 days. Crypto is not confirming equity’s risk-on signal ✅
DXY vs Gold	Aligned (both weak)	$USD -1.38% on the week, $GOLD -0.63% Friday. Dollar weak but gold not accelerating — the safe haven is catching its breath, not signaling the risk has passed ✅
VIX vs Equity	Divergent	$SPX +3.56% on the week but VIX pre-market at 21.19 (+10.2%). Equity rallied and VIX didn’t fall proportionally — the options market doesn’t believe the rally ✅
Oil vs Equities	Divergent	$WTIC -13.4% last week (ceasefire collapse), then gap-up +6.9% Monday. $SPX +3.56% last week. Oil and equity moved together last week (both up on the ceasefire); Monday they diverge: oil up, equity down ✅

Fractures

The most dangerous fracture is VIX vs Equity. Last week’s rally did not bring VIX sustainably below SMA200 (18.16) — it bounced back to 19.23 on Friday and is already at 21 on Monday morning. The options market is saying: “the rally is a mirage.” If VIX closes above the SMA50 (22.42) this week, the divergence will resolve in volatility’s favor — which means against equity.

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🎯 FINBEAR Operational Bias

Operational Parameters

Field	Value
Regime	Event-driven with reversal risk
Lean	Bearish as long as $SPX stays below 6,857 (upper BB)
Price invalidation	$SPX closing above 6,857 with volume — the rally regains momentum
Macro invalidation	Core March PPI below +0.2% MoM — the market reads “inflation is just oil, core is under control” and buys
Event invalidation	Credible reopening of Iran negotiations OR blockade easing — same dynamic as April 8 but less probable from here
Confirmation trigger	VIX closes above 22.42 (SMA50) + WTI above $105 for two consecutive sessions
Window	Full week (with heightened focus on Mon pre-PPI and Thu pre-TSMC)
If invalidated	Bias shifts from bearish to neutral-constructive with SPX target 6,900 — the market is demonstrating it can digest the blockade

Central Thesis

Last week’s rally was built on a ceasefire. That ceasefire doesn’t exist anymore. The market needs to reprice geopolitical risk: oil at $103+ is a real cost for every company reporting this week. Today’s PPI will likely confirm the inflationary shock (+1.2% MoM consensus, energy-driven). The combination of blockade + hot PPI + five consecutive sessions of earnings favors a pullback toward the SMA50 (6,762), with a possible SMA200 test (6,663) if VIX clears 22.42.

Alternative Scenario

Core PPI surprises to the downside (as core CPI did at +0.2%), banks report stellar trading revenue (having benefited from Iran volatility), and $TSM on Thursday confirms the AI Supercycle. The market draws a line between “oil inflation” and “structural inflation” and buys tech. SPX holds above 6,762 and closes the week above 6,800.

Tail Scenario

An incident in the Strait of Hormuz (Iran has threatened “deadly traps”). WTI above $115 intraday, VIX above 28, SPX tests 6,663 (SMA200). The market transitions from “manageable event” to “crisis.” Banks suspend guidance. Tail probability below 10% (subjective), but catastrophic impact.

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🧨 Risk Map

⚠️ Stability zone

SPX 6,762–6,857 with VIX 19–22 and WTI $96–$105. The plan holds as long as the oil shock stays “contained” and the market treats the blockade as a known risk

⚠️ Acceleration zone

SPX below 6,762 (SMA50) with VIX above 22.42 (SMA50). Both firing simultaneously means the market is admitting the rally was built on air, and the selloff accelerates toward 6,663 (SMA200)

⚠️ Event with asymmetric risk

PPI headline +1.2% MoM — the market absorbed the hot CPI headline (+0.9%) because core was contained. If PPI headline confirms AND core PPI surprises to the upside → the “it’s only oil” anchor breaks and the market reprices the entire Fed curve. This risk is underpriced because everyone is watching the blockade

⚠️ Most vulnerable asset

$INDU (Dow Jones, 47,916.57). The only major index below its SMA50. Direct oil shock exposure through industrials and transports. Banks weigh on the Dow, and elevated loan loss provisions would hit the sector. The weakest link among the three indices

⚠️ Best risk/reward asset

$GOLD (4,761.90). Below SMA50 (4,891) for the first time in weeks — an opportunity if the blockade intensifies. Hormuz stays shut → gold above 5,000 is a plausible scenario (upper BB at 5,025). Blockade resolves → limited downside to EMA20 (4,732). Asymmetry is favorable

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📰 In Brief

🏛️ Trump vs the Pope

Trump attacked Pope Francis over criticism of the Iran war and immigration policy (Bloomberg, 5h ago). Institutional noise that adds to the backdrop without moving markets. The Vatican doesn’t have a ticker, but the White House’s tone says a great deal about how much pressure they feel.

📈 Wall Street strategists: “jump into tech”

After last week’s rally (SOX +13.5%, Nasdaq +4.7%), several strategists are calling it an opportunity in tech (Yahoo Finance). Cui prodest? Those sitting on inventory after a +13% week need buyers. The timing — a Monday morning with a naval blockade — is eloquent.

🧠 Ray Dalio: “the world order is gone”

The Bridgewater founder warns of an American “civil war” and urges wealth preservation (Moneywise). Dalio is structurally catastrophist, but the timing with Hormuz is relevant. The messenger is less important than the fact that the message resonates.

🧠 Palantir: Trump names it, Burry shorts it

Trump cited $PLTR by ticker (the first president to do so) — +$10B in market cap in minutes. Burry opens a short and says “Anthropic is the real winner of AI” (Moneywise). The perfect duality. ($PLTR)

🚀 SpaceX IPO and Tesla

Barron’s floats the idea that the SpaceX IPO could be a prelude to a merger with $TSLA. Separately, JPMorgan renews its warning: $TSLA “could crash 60%, high caution.” Medium-term story, not this week. ($TSLA)

₿ Saylor: “2% BTC growth = MSTR dividends forever”

Michael Saylor (BeInCrypto) argues that 2% annual $BTCUSD growth would cover $MSTR dividends in perpetuity. With Crypto F&G at 16, the math is elegant — the reality, less so.

🏢 CMS +2.5% reimbursement rate

Positive for health insurers and healthcare broadly (Yahoo Finance, 4 days ago). Correlates with $UNH (Thursday) and $JNJ (Wednesday). Background support, not a standalone catalyst.

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🎭 Fear & Loathing on Wall Street

😰 -32 — ANXIETY

Components

Name	Value	Calculation
NSS (Narrative)	-24	17 headlines tracked: 10 negative (6 Tier 1: Bloomberg ×3, CNN, WSJ, Reuters), 3 positive (TSMC record, “jump into tech,” CMS), 4 neutral. Weighted sum -8.0 / total weight ~18.0 = ratio -0.44 → base -13.3 → rounded -13. Multipliers: institutional emergency language (CENTCOM naval blockade, “deadly whirlpools” WSJ) → -3; unprecedented event (US naval blockade of Hormuz, first time in history) → -2; counter-narrative present (TSMC +38%, core CPI contained) → +3. Total multipliers: -2. Adjusted to -15. Editorial margin ±7 (VIX 21, extraordinary events): shift -9 for an unprecedented concentration of Tier 1 negative headlines in 48 hours (negotiations collapse + blockade + Iran threats). Final: -24
MBD (Market Behavior)	-11	VIX 21.19 (pre-market, range 20–25) → -3; VIX up +10.2% → -2. Total vix_score: -5. SPX futures -0.59% (range -0.5/–1%) → -3. WTI futures +6.92% (range 5–10%) → -5. Most recent NFP +178K (range 100–200K) → +2. MBD_base = -5 + (-3) + (-5) + 2 = -11. No editorial shift — the market is tense but not in panic (futures only -0.6%)
PSM (Latent Sentiment)	-10	Crypto F&G 16 (range 15–25, Fear) → -6. Gold -0.63% Friday (range ±1%, stable) → 0; but Gold +2.37% weekly (range +1/+3%) → -3 (safe haven active on a weekly basis). Using weekly data: -3. Defense stocks: n/a → 0. ETF flows: n/a → 0. PSM_base = -6 + (-3) + 0 + 0 = -9. Editorial shift +1: -10 (46 consecutive days of Extreme Fear in crypto is a structural signal the table’s -6 doesn’t fully capture — but the margin is small because the data is clear)

Interpretation

The index returns to the Anxiety zone after its brief visit to Neutral (April 8–9). Deterioration from -15 (⚪ Neutral) on April 9, 2026. The April 8 ceasefire had briefly catapulted the index to +6 — the first positive reading since February 18. In five days, the negotiation collapse and the naval blockade have erased all of that improvement and returned the index to the range it held for three weeks in March (-26/-28). The dissociation is total: equity is still celebrating the rally, but VIX, oil, crypto, and gold are all saying the risk never left the room.

Consistency Check

Last P&D: -15 (Neutral) — 2026-04-09

Delta: -17

⚠️ Alert: Significant delta (>15) + Zone change (Neutral → Anxiety)

Catalysts:

Full collapse of Iran negotiations, April 12;
US naval blockade of Hormuz announced — unprecedented in history;
WTI gap-up +6.92% pre-market;
VIX +10.2% pre-market;
Iran threatens “deadly whirlpools” in the Strait –

Decision: Confirmed

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📜 Disclaimer & Maxim

This document is not financial advice, not an investment recommendation, and not an invitation to liquidate your 401(k) and reinvest the proceeds in crude futures because a naval blockade sounds exciting. It is an independent analysis for educational and informational purposes only. If, after reading this, you decide to park an aircraft carrier in your portfolio, that’s entirely your call — we told you the Strait was tight.

💡 FINBEAR™ Maxim: “When the commander-in-chief announces a naval blockade and markets fall half a percent, that’s not composure. It’s the pause before a man realizes the elevator door has opened onto nothing.”

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📡 RADAR WEEK AHEAD™ FINBEAR — Week of April 13–17, 2026 — WA-008

‹ Torna all'Osservatorio

Day	Role	What Matters
Mon Apr 13	THE DAY	$GS earnings pre-market (kickoff) + Hormuz Blockade 10:00 ET. Two catalysts before noon
Tue Apr 14	PPI + Banks	March PPI 08:30 + $JPM $WFC $BLK $C pre-market — inflation and bank balance sheets in the same morning
Wed Apr 15	Completion	$BAC $MS $JNJ — closing out the bank picture + healthcare
Thu Apr 16	THE SECOND DAY	$TSM pre-market (AI Supercycle), $NFLX after close, Philly Fed, Initial Claims, Industrial Production
Fri Apr 17	Digestion	Post-Netflix, no major macro. Pre-weekend positioning with blockade live

📑 Table of Contents

🧭 Before You Open the Terminal

⚔️ Debrief

Previous Plan

Triggers & Results

Analysis

Lesson

What We Carry Forward

🗺️ Executive Map

🔬 Regime Check

Judgment

📊 Key Technical Levels

S&P 500 ($SPX)

Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ)

Dow Jones ($INDU)

EUR/USD ($EURUSD)

Gold ($GOLD)

WTI Crude ($WTIC)

Bitcoin ($BTCUSD)

VIX ($VIX)

📅 Macro Calendar

Economic Events

Macro Context

Week Map

💰 Earnings

Calendar

Thematic Clusters

Cluster 1 — Banks (Mon–Wed)

Cluster 2 — TSMC (Thu)

Cluster 3 — Netflix (Thu after close)

📈 Positioning & Flows

Vulnerabilities

🔗 Critical Correlations

Fractures

🎯 FINBEAR Operational Bias

Operational Parameters

Central Thesis

Alternative Scenario

Tail Scenario

🧨 Risk Map

📰 In Brief

🏛️ Trump vs the Pope

📈 Wall Street strategists: “jump into tech”

🧠 Ray Dalio: “the world order is gone”

🧠 Palantir: Trump names it, Burry shorts it

🚀 SpaceX IPO and Tesla

₿ Saylor: “2% BTC growth = MSTR dividends forever”

🏢 CMS +2.5% reimbursement rate

🎭 Fear & Loathing on Wall Street

😰 -32 — ANXIETY

Components

Interpretation

Consistency Check

📜 Disclaimer & Maxim

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